Nearly 11 months have passed since the November 2020 presidential election, and it is not as fresh in our minds as it was during the fight over electoral certification, or on January 6th, or even the inauguration.
But many Americans have concerns and questions that still haven’t been addressed. Many believe the election was tampered with in a significant way, even to the point of changing its outcome.
By early December last year, I had watched hours of footage out of legislative hearings held in several swing states. Election workers testified to the irregularities and outright illegal acts they witnessed. Video surfaced of ballot drop off boxes that were still being used after Nov 3rd. Hidden boxes pulled from underneath tables in counting rooms. Windows were boarded up to prevent citizens from observing the count. Shocked, but realizing our beautiful Republic had been subverted, I began searching for answers.
Armed with new knowledge, in following weeks I sought to determine if any of the same forms of cheating could have occurred here, in Oklahoma, the state I call home.
What I discovered in the election data elevated my concerns. Suspicious patterns appeared in the absentee returns, which go against statewide trends, and include the down-ballot contests. If you haven’t read my summary from December, Oklahoma Voting Patterns Match Allegations of Fraud in Swing States, please go take a look now. It will fill in the rest of the background for what I uncover here.
When it became apparent to me our absentee mail-in voting system had been seriously compromised, I wanted to cover the whole state in detail. Would this pattern hold in other counties? Does anywhere look normal, more like prior elections? It was vital to learn these answers. But for the better part of this spring, I lacked for time and the resources I would need to do a proper full analysis. I felt alone in this quest.
Then things began to change, and as the wise Solomon says to us, “Time and chance happeneth to them all.”
A few states actually began audit efforts, Arizona being the most widely known. PA, GA, and MN are included to a lesser extent, too. The public still has interest in seeing 2020 resolved. Eventually, this lingering interest led me to other patriotic Oklahomans who shared these concerns. It was a huge boost of enthusiasm that helped reinvigorate my search for answers. Then due to a (divine) twist of circumstances in the summer, I suddenly had time in my calendar to continue investigating the election.
I have now conducted a review of ALL 77 Oklahoma counties. There are many aspects to this analysis, some of which is still in progress, each providing more clarity on the results. I plan to release the remaining information in a few separate posts over the next weeks.
All data used here comes from publicly available information, found at the State Election Board’s website, which you can download yourself at any time. Feel free to check the math.
Safe and secure, but are we sure?
Public officials have repeatedly emphasized how our election infrastructure is “safe and secure,” so much so that it could not be compromised, and any attempts to attack it would be caught and thwarted. However, the public itself has good reason to be less than convinced.
We previously looked at the state of Oklahoma in 2016 and ’20, comparing the presidential election votes statewide, as well as in relation to voter registration changes. Despite Republican registration gains, they were outpaced in voting. Then we examined a couple key counties, namely Oklahoma & Tulsa, and found a strangely uniform pattern in the absentee portion of their votes. All seemed to favor Democrat candidates, plus at first glance, some other contests looked impacted, too.
I knew something was wrong. These numbers weren’t natural. For one, how could candidate Joe Biden, who hardly campaigned, and certainly had no real operation in-state, outperform Hillary Clinton, one of the most recognized names in US political history? And furthermore, why did he seem to have such an advantage in the absentee vote specifically?
Take a look at this excerpt from Tulsa County. You can see that despite Donald Trump’s approximately 2:1 Election Day ratio vs. Biden, the absentee numbers are way out of proportion – about 1.8:1 in Biden’s favor. Early votes swung toward Biden, but to a much lesser extent, 1.3:1. Mail ins account for almost 35% of his total vote in the county. Something is way off.
The most common explanation I usually hear for this is simple – “Democrats do better in mail-in campaigns than Republicans.” This may or may not hold on a national level, or in more competitive states, but as I have repeated over the last ten months, this is simply not true in this Oklahoma. That’s clear from my initial report. For the prior two presidential election cycles, Republicans beat Democrats in mail in voting in this state.
Hillary Clinton received 112,813 total votes from Oklahoma County. 11,979 were absentee. Biden received more than 4.5x that number (55,118), with 141,724 total. Since Biden never campaigned in the state of Oklahoma, and his policies stand to hurt Oklahoma’s industries, this doesn’t make sense.
Now to visualize just how much better we’re talking about when I say Biden “did better” in the mail in race, let’s compare the percentages for those presidential race numbers above on each of the voting types. It doesn’t matter what the percent was in each type, we’re only concerned with the difference between the two. (Adding in all candidates & leaving out early in-person voting for this comparison)
We would expect to see some level of difference, or divergence, between candidates’ performance in one type to the other, if for no other reason than random chance. You might see it in areas where one party or candidate had a strong campaign operation, or an aggressive mail in strategy. Instead when looking at Tulsa County’s numbers, you can see while Biden and Trump had almost exactly the opposite performance. Jo Jorgensen, on the other hand, gained about the same percentage of both vote types.
This revelation alone leads many to consider an audit worthy of our state’s time. Yet again the question has been asked, what did 2016 look like?
We do need a baseline, so the ask is fair. Are these counties just composed of more Democrat voters? The answer is no, in 2016 the numbers were much closer, more believable, and now I can show that on a chart as well:
Performing 5% better than Election Day is “a good mail in campaign,” and might give a candidate a boost in the totals. 29% different is difficult to fathom.
One more important piece, in some counties absentee figures were more consistent with the early and Election Day votes. It is true, and should be noted, that Election Day heavily favored Trump across the nation. Still, could Democrats simply have outperformed in this category? Could all of this suspicion be explained away?
A Uniform Ticket
Another aspect in my analysis that raised suspicion to me was an apparent level of uniformity down the ballot races in some counties. For example, in Oklahoma County all the federal Democrat candidates, plus a “Yes” vote on State Question 805 won a similar number of mail in votes, whereas the Republican candidates and the “No” vote showed more variance. This was even more apparent when I added in Oklahoma City’s 9 city charter questions, which too had similar amounts in favor of passage, but the “No” option varied much more wildly.
|Oklahoma County||Tulsa County|
Above are Oklahoma County’s races with the 9 questions, and to the right Tulsa County’s Supreme Court and Court of Civil/Criminal Appeals retention races. In Oklahoma County, all stated (mail in) races combined were within 22.6% of each other on the Democratic side, yet the Republican side varies by 71.9%. In Tulsa County, the “D” variance is even less, at 18.8%, yet the total vote for the same contests varied by 41%.
It All Adds Up To Something
I use Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties to introduce the concepts of divergence and uniformity because they account for much of the statewide vote and have lots of races to evaluate. But they aren’t the only places in this state you see some strangeness in the 2020 returns.
If we were only talking about 2 out of 77 counties, sure that’s something to clean up, a gap to keep our eyes open for, but what myself and many others are calling for is a full forensic audit in multiple counties. Some want new elections. Some want them on paper with no machines involved in the process. What could be so wrong with our election system that it should alarm and merit the interest of the whole state?
Let’s focus a little more on divergence. Big cities might have strong Democrat Party operations, so let’s see some less populated areas. Do the divergence numbers drop off? Will we find some counties where Trump bests the Biden campaign with mail ins, and Biden does better on the day of?
No, we do not. Instead as I looked throughout the state, I found percentages consistently going the same direction, always resulting in Biden outperforming in mail ins. If I showed the actual mail in percents, there are cases where Biden exceeded Trump’s percent. In Carter it was 49.9-48.6% in Biden’s favor. In Adair though, Trump got 50.7% over Biden’s 46.2%.
To illustrate the trend further, let’s look at 8 counties together on the same scale.
Most are in the 25-30% range. I added in Roger Mills, which is one of the least divergent counties in this respect, but it also shows the features I’ve outlined, if to a lesser extent. What’s more, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen appears to perform within 1% of her Election Day every single time. That could be a feature of having very low turnout, but it’s amazing no less!
What’s more amazing to me, is that in many counties (with this divergence), a highly unpopular State Question 805 got more “Yes” votes than Joe Biden!
By now you should see the clear pattern developing, and if you’ve given it much thought you may be troubled.
I already thought it looked controlled to some extent, but I wanted to see if I could tell how, or otherwise explain away this apparent indication the election was tampered with. Maybe the trend will break or the numbers won’t be that close to each other. After I entered the last county, I sorted the table I was working from in order of the highest divergence % to lowest. And that’s when I knew these numbers weren’t natural.
The next graph is a visual representation of all 77 counties in the State of Oklahoma, using that same divergence score, sorted by Biden’s greatest performance difference to the least.
What you’re looking at here is a controlled proportion that could not be the product of a true vote. It’s algorithmic. As explained to me by others with more math and analytical skills than I possess, this curve can be described as the expression of a 6th order polynomial. The county names are intentionally left out (for now) so that you don’t insert any preconceived ideas. Although, anyone could run the numbers to find out.
In an election conducted with the highest standards of integrity and security, where men and women cast a vote and their vote is counted fairly, there could never be a resultant curve that looks like this. It isn’t possible.
I’ll elaborate more on why in the next piece.